Darko Starts
In 1997 the Detroit Pistons traded Otis Thorpe to the Vancouver Grizzlies for a conditional first round draft choice. Thorpe had been an above average power forward for thirteen consecutive seasons. But after the trade, he played four more seasons (with five different teams) and was never above average again. So this was a classic case of a team trading an aging veteran just before his performance slipped.
In return for Thorpe the Grizzles surrendered a conditional first round draft choice, which the Grizzlies failed to deliver for several seasons. Finally in 2003 the draft choice had to be surrendered, and it turned out to be the second overall choice in the draft.
So let’s review. The Pistons managed to rid themselves of an aging veteran whose productivity had dropped. And in return the Pistons received a very high lottery choice. So far, all one could say is “Brilliant!!!”
With the first pick in 2003 the Cleveland Cavaliers took LeBron James. Once on the clock the Pistons made a move that appears today to be less than brilliant. With the second pick Detroit chose Darko Milicic, a seventeen year old prospect from Europe. In making this selection the Pistons passed on Carmelo Anthony (and of course many others).
Last year the Pistons ended the Darko experiment, trading him to the Orlando Magic (along with Carlos Arroyo) for Kelvin Cato and a first round pick in the 2007 draft. Such a trade suggests that the Pistons were admitting the selection of Milicic was a mistake, or from another perspective, the team was wrong to pass on Anthony.
At the midpoint of the current campaign Milicic had done very little to change the perception that he was worthy of being chosen over Anthony. Coming off the bench for the Magic, Milicic was posting a Wins Produced per 48 minutes [WP48] of -0.004. Given that Milicic entered the 2006-07 season with a career mark of -0.039, it was hard to see that he was progressing into a productive NBA player.
Meanwhile, after only offering a career WP48 of 0.040 (average is 0.100) before the current campaign, Anthony’s WP48 had risen to 0.140 in the first half of 2006-07. This mark exceeded the WP48 of Pistons small forward Tayshaun Prince (the player people argued had led the Pistons to look past Anthony in the first place). So it was beginning to look like the Pistons were less than brilliant when they passed on Melo in 2003.
And then in early February Tony Battie of the Magic suffered an injury. Suddenly Milicic was thrust into the starting line-up. Prior to this injury, Milicic has only started three games in his entire career. But over the last ten games the Human Victory Cigar – as Darko was dubbed early in his career for the Pistons habit of only playing him at the end of blow-outs – has finally had a chance to appear consistently at the beginning of a game.
And the results have been impressive. In ten games he has posted a Win Score per-minute of 0.246, which translates into a PAWSmin (Player Adjusted Win Score per minute) of 0.022. This translates into an estimated WP48 of 0.139. So after all these translations we finally see evidence – albeit over just ten games – that Milicic can indeed be an above average performer.
Meanwhile, Anthony has not performed nearly as well. Since returning from his suspension, Anthony has posted a 0.130 Win Score per-minute. This translates into a PAWSmin of -0.022, or an estimated WP48 of only 0.068. Yes, Milicic is finally offering a greater level of productivity than Anthony.
Of course, the Pistons didn’t just have a choice between Milicic and Anthony. Chris Bosh, the fourth choice in 2003, posted a 0.192 WP48 last season. The fifth choice, Dwyane Wade, offered a 0.301 WP48 in 2005-06. This season both players are offering similar levels of productivity.
Given the performances of Bosh and Wade (and others), it seems unlikely that Milicic will ever be regarded as the second best player in the 2003 draft. But these last ten games suggest that he is capable of offering more than Anthony (or Anthony is capable of offering less), and that suggest something, doesn’t it?
Well, probably not. Regardless of what Milicic does for the Magic, his days of helping the Pistons have ended. Still, the last few weeks do suggest that Darko – who is only 21 years old – might be developing into a legitimate NBA player. And given his restricted free agent status, his development is coming just in time.
- DJ
PAWSmin was discussed in the following post: