Building with LeBron
Thus far this season the best team in the Eastern Conference is the Cleveland Cavaliers. With a record of 22-13, this team looks like it is on pace to win around 51 or 52 games. Last year this team won 50 games and it was not the best in the East. So it’s clear the plan Cleveland is following to build a contender in the Eastern Conference. Pray that everyone gets worse! So far, those prayers are being answered.
As Cleveland discovered against Phoenix on Thursday night, competing with the best in the West may not be quite as easy as winning the East. Currently Cleveland is scoring 1.015 points per possession while allowing 0.987. Such a result would lead one to predict that this team has won only about 20 games thus far, or that Cleveland is only on pace to win about 47 games. And this is the best team in the East?
In a normal season, the Cavaliers would not be thought of as contenders to reach the NBA Finals. And when we look at this team’s players – which you can see HERE – we see why this is the case.
The star of this team is LeBron James. Last year LeBron produced 20.4 wins, a mark only bested three other players (Kevin Garnett, Jason Kidd, and Shawn Marion). This year he is on pace to produce 18.8 wins, so he is still one of the top wins producers in the NBA.
Last year LeBron’s teammates (in an earlier post I labeled the teammates of a star Everyone Else) produced 0.077 wins per 48 minutes [WP48]. This mark ranked 15th in the NBA, or was just about average. This year Everyone Else on the Cavaliers is offering a WP48 of 0.081. To put that number in perspective, Tim Duncan’s teammates last year posted a WP48 of 0.119 last year. Dirk Nowitzki’s teammates in 2005-06 offered 0.112 while Ben Wallace’s teammates in Detroit had a mark of 0.110. In sum, LeBron’s teammates are coming up a bit short.
In discussing the Washington Wizards I noted that Washington had assembled a good cast of Everyone Else, but it lacked a major star to launch the team into title contention. The Cavaliers clearly have the major star in LeBron. Thus far, though, it lacks a quality cast of Everyone Else.
That being said, there are a few above average players on this team. Drew Gooden has posted a WP48 of 0.231 (average is 0.100). Zydrunas Ilgauskas’s WP48 stands at 0.153. Each of these marks are similar to what was offered last year, so like last year, this team’s frontcourt is solid. The backcourt, though, remains a disappointment. There is no player – other than LeBron – who is above average at point guard, shooting guard, or small forward. One should note that this was the same observation made about this team in 2005-06.
As noted, Cleveland is essentially the same team it was last year. But the declines we observe in Miami and Detroit have vaulted this team towards the top in the East.
All this could pay off. Cleveland could take the Eastern Conference title in 2007. And once in the NBA Finals, anything can happen in a seven game series. So perhaps LeBron and the Cavaliers will get lucky this year and win a title.
Even if this happens, though, the current incarnation of the Cavaliers is not one of the best teams in the NBA. It will struggle to go far beyond 50 wins this season. And one wonders if LeBron, who did not sign a maximum contract last summer when given the chance, will be impressed by a team that continues to be “good” but falls short of “great.”
- DJ